Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 2.877261 3.423444 4.032394 4.759811 5.603167 6.548162 7.685172
2025-06-29 1.923754 2.606382 3.457178 4.587109 6.038876 7.830998 10.198863
2025-07-06 1.383910 2.099097 3.079849 4.503541 6.493781 9.149669 12.928163
2025-07-13 1.158607 1.931911 3.079731 4.871060 7.550012 11.350861 17.077400
2025-07-20 0.949344 1.726379 2.965494 5.028345 8.301841 13.199641 20.950568
2025-07-27 0.802432 1.578672 2.898884 5.226227 9.116013 15.209351 25.266298
2025-08-03 0.658994 1.399190 2.738383 5.230811 9.603826 16.751887 29.014074
2025-08-10 0.522390 1.196972 2.494484 5.040948 9.723606 17.696012 31.882962
2025-08-17 0.408681 1.010191 2.239070 4.778755 9.665045 18.313744 34.247447
2025-08-24 0.337514 0.894763 2.097761 4.702917 9.922265 19.484477 37.647741
2025-08-31 0.282475 0.801252 1.981927 4.654547 10.216512 20.738861 41.298978
2025-09-07 0.254986 0.767076 1.986810 4.854307 11.017050 22.994962 46.958825
2025-09-14 0.217419 0.698898 1.905609 4.863960 11.450953 24.636287 51.701318
2025-09-21 0.184785 0.635092 1.822619 4.857407 11.853556 26.266206 56.595772
2025-09-28 0.156609 0.575582 1.737770 4.831689 12.210154 27.839627 61.527940
2025-10-05 0.150968 0.583504 1.829360 5.247699 13.605203 31.671774 71.296847
2025-10-12 0.136331 0.558124 1.826030 5.425132 14.472811 34.478263 79.210119
2025-10-19 0.124644 0.539178 1.836860 5.640481 15.454831 37.617291 88.067059
2025-10-26 0.108148 0.497636 1.773203 5.646675 15.931064 39.694490 94.850360
2025-11-02 0.088829 0.438283 1.642017 5.443718 15.860359 40.542256 99.056447
2025-11-09 0.071164 0.378168 1.493412 5.162865 15.550086 40.807024 101.996817
2025-11-16 0.060369 0.342674 1.417288 5.081618 15.751024 42.277901 107.749127
2025-11-23 0.051714 0.313145 1.354521 5.029778 16.023617 43.942061 114.071302